From Power Plant to Pay Point: Where the Chain Breaks
Nigeria does not lose its electricity in one place. It leaks at every stage, and the leaks compound.
You load a token on Monday. By Thursday it is finished, and the light was off for half the time you needed it. You are left asking the question every Nigerian has asked at some point: where does all this money go, and why is there still no steady light?
The honest answer is that every unit of electricity makes a long journey: from a gas well or a river, through a turbine, across a transmission line, down a feeder, into a meter and, finally, back as money. Follow that journey with the latest NERC numbers and you find something uncomfortable. The chain does not break in one place. It narrows at almost every link.
The journey, stage by stage
Latest NERC figures, by stage
| Stage | What happens | Latest figure |
|---|---|---|
| Installed | Plants built | 13,625 MW |
| Available | Plants able to run | 4,458 MW (Q1 2026); 5,038 MW (September 2026) |
| Generated | Power sent to the grid | 4,113 MWh/h (Q1 2026) |
| Transmitted | Carried to DisCos | about 8% lost on the way (7.96% in Q1 2026) |
| Received | Taken in by DisCos | 6,982.32 GWh (Q2 2026) |
| Billed | Measured and invoiced | 5,812.31 GWh, 83.24% of energy received |
| Collected | Paid by customers | ₦603.64bn of ₦744.67bn billed (81.06%) |
| Remitted | Sent upstream | ₦385.44bn of ₦410.38bn invoiced (93.92%) |
These figures come from different periods, so read the table as a map and not as a single calculation.
The plants
The first and largest drop happens before a single unit reaches the grid. About two-thirds of installed capacity was unavailable in Q1 2026, because of gas shortages, maintenance backlogs and plant faults.
Installed vs available capacity, Q1 2026
Roughly one megawatt in three could run.
The money behind the gas
Plants need fuel, and fuel needs payment. Debts owed to generators and gas suppliers have led some suppliers to cut off supply to indebted plants. This is the point where the money problem becomes a physical power problem.
The grid
Transmission lost about 8% of what the plants sent out in Q1 2026, and the grid operated with very little headroom, at a 92.26% load factor. Two collapses in January 2026 showed how thin that margin is.
The last mile
Of the energy DisCos received in Q2 2026, about 17% (roughly 1,170 GWh) was never billed. Of the ₦946.57 billion worth of energy received, ₦201.9 billion was not billed and a further ₦141.03 billion was billed but not paid. That leaves the DisCos with ₦603.64 billion, or about ₦64 for every ₦100. Poor metering, estimated billing, losses and theft all sit here.
Where ₦100 of energy received ends up, Q2 2026
Total energy received was worth ₦946.57bn.
The way back
Of the ₦603.64 billion collected, about 64% (₦385.44 billion) went upstream to NBET and the Market Operator, in GridIQ's calculation. The remainder has to run the DisCos' own operations.
GenCos, for their part, say they receive only about 35% of what they invoice each month, and that new debts keep building. The Federal Government's verification reduced claims of more than ₦4 trillion to about ₦3.3 trillion in agreed liabilities. Two bonds, ₦501 billion in January 2026 and ₦728.979 billion with settlement beginning on 9 October 2026, are now paying part of it.
One loop, not five problems
The five break points are linked. Weak collections at the meter mean less money for the generators. Less money for the generators means less gas and fewer working plants. Fewer working plants mean worse supply, and worse supply gives customers a reason not to pay.
Fixing any single link will help, but only fixing the loop will last.
Sources and notes
- NERC Q1 2026 and Q2 2026 quarterly reports; NERC operational factsheets (January to September 2026).
- GridIQ calculations: ₦946.57bn − ₦744.67bn = ₦201.9bn not billed; ₦744.67bn − ₦603.64bn = ₦141.03bn billed but unpaid; ₦385.44bn ÷ ₦603.64bn ≈ 64%; 6,982.32 GWh − 5,812.31 GWh ≈ 1,170 GWh unbilled.
- GenCo claims on payment levels are from the Association of Power Generation Companies. The Federal Government and GenCos have publicly disagreed on the size of the debt.
- NBET Series 1 and Series 2 bond announcements under the Presidential Power Sector Debt Reduction Programme (₦4 trillion programme).